Property outlook 2026: what off the plan buyers need to know

If you still read the newspaper headlines (or just get your news from Instagram), you'll know that Australia’s property market has entered 2026 with an almost contradictory mix of optimism and caution. After strong gains in 2025, housing values are widely expected to continue rising in 2026, albeit at a slower pace, as demand continues to outstrip supply and economic conditions evolve.

Economic backdrop and interest rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) currently holds the cash rate at 3.6 per cent, following three cuts last year that boosted borrowing capacity and buyer confidence. While some economists and banks are quite strongly suggesting further cuts are unlikely over the next 12 months, and even predict potential rate rises later this year, the market is absorbing this 'higher for longer' interest rate environment.

Consumer sentiment has dipped somewhat as households deal with uncertainty over future rates and cost pressures, which could influence buyer behaviour in the months ahead. Despite this, overall, at LINK, we are still seeing a lot of positivity in the buyers we are interacting with, as many look for opportunities with solid developers and a lot of certainty to start building their nest eggs for what may be quite a volatile short and medium-term financial future.

Supply versus demand

Australia’s housing supply shortage continues to be a defining force right across the market, impacting both established and off the plan property. National initiatives like the National Housing Accord aim to deliver 1.2 million new homes by 2029, but with only 45,000 new homes completed under this collaboration of governments and industry in the first quarter, those numbers still feel more than ambitious... but why not make big promises? In all likelihood those making them may not still be in their current roles to be held accountable when that deadline sneaks up on them. To get to the goal, almost a quarter of a million homes need to be built every year, and in the current climate, the possibility that will occur is questionable at best.

Right now, supply is still falling notably short of demand, especially for multi-unit and off the plan dwellings. ABS building activity data shows there are still many dwellings under construction or in the pipeline, but completions lag what’s needed for affordability.

Price trends and forecasts

Multiple indicators suggest national house prices will rise again in 2026, though likely at a slower rate than the sharp gains seen in some areas in 2025:

• Domain forecasts average combined capital city house price growth of around 6 per cent for houses in 2026 and 5 per cent for units.
• KPMG anticipates balanced growth, with house prices up about 4.5 per cent and units about 5.1 per cent.

Following on from trends of strong recent performance, regional and outer-suburban markets are expected to outperform in many cases as demand shifts toward affordability and lifestyle hubs.

Off the plan and new-build dynamics

Off-the-plan projects, particularly apartments, townhouses and multi-unit developments, have become a key part of the supply response, especially in inner and middle rings of major cities and growth corridors. Private new home sales are projected to stay relatively stable through 2026, signalling that supply will continue but still won't accelerate to the pace needed.

Large inner-city apartment projects slated for 2026 will continue to shape new supply, with major developments underway across Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. Here at LINK, as well as a list of new opportunities to be shared over coming months, we are looking forward to quite a few completions which will see projects transition from off the plan to finished new builds, bringing all the advantages of that move with them. We are seeing suburbs around the inner and outer west of Sydney creating serious new opportunities, and projects in the north also delivering new homes in high-demand areas.

What this means for off the plan buyers

1. Take advantage of price stability

With forecasts suggesting continued value growth but at a more moderate pace, locking in off the plan pricing now can protect against rising costs later in the construction cycle.

2. Capitalise on affordability strategies

Government incentives like the expanded 5 per cent first home buyer deposit scheme and state-based stimulus measures can improve entry points into off-the-plan purchases.

3. Leverage financing certainty

Given the possibility of higher for longer interest rates, securing favourable pre-approval or fixed-rate options early can reduce risk and provide certainty through construction.

4. Prioritise supply-constrained locations

Buyers should focus on areas with strong population growth, limited new supply, and transport or infrastructure investment; these fundamentals will support long-term value.

What this means for developers

1. Push early-stage sales and deposits

With demand remaining strong relative to available stock, developers who launch projects and secure presales early can insulate against cost escalation and financing volatility.

2. Streamline approvals and planning

Many projects still face timing delays due to regulatory and labour constraints. Prioritising planning and approvals now can help align construction with peak demand windows.

3. Highlight affordability and lifestyle

Marketing that emphasises cost-effective ownership (for example, lower deposit pathways, government support eligibility) and lifestyle outcomes will resonate with both owner-occupiers and investors under current conditions.

4. Anticipate buyers’ financing concerns

With consumer sentiment sensitive to rate expectations, developers who offer clear financing guidance or partnerships with brokers will differentiate their projects.

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The first half of 2026 is likely to be a continuation of the broader property cycle: prices climbing, supply constrained, and demand shifting toward affordability and lifestyle-driven segments. Interest rates remain a wildcard, but overall forecasts point to moderate growth, not reductions.

For off the plan buyers, the opportunities lie in timing, financing certainty and selecting supply-scarce locations. For developers, securing presales, efficient approvals and targeted marketing will amplify success in a market where confident buyers still outnumber available dwellings.